Track Record
Every prediction we publish is immutable. Time-stamped, signed, traceable.
ⓘ Staging preview: curves below are back-test simulation on historical fixtures. Live Track Record begins when the World Cup kicks off (Jun 11).
ROI · 26-week simulation (1 unit per pick)
The curve represents cumulative ROI if a flat-stake bettor took every value-flagged pick at the published price. Past performance, even in simulation, is not a guarantee.
Calibration curve
Each dot is a probability bucket. If we say a side wins 60% of the time, it should win about 60% of the time. Dots near the dashed diagonal mean the model is well-calibrated — not over- or under-confident.
Profitable prediction share
Picks whose final probability exceeded the de-vigged market price at publication. Anything ≥ 43% over a meaningful sample is sharp territory.
ROI curve and Calibration curve appear once enough World Cup matches have been graded.